Developers are poised to launch significant production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in the United States, with Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project expected to produce approximately 10,000 barrels per day (b/d) of SAF starting this summer. Additionally, Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur project is anticipated to generate about 15,000 b/d of SAF by year-end.
SAF serves as a renewable alternative to conventional petroleum jet fuel, derived from agricultural and waste feedstocks. It is typically blended with traditional jet fuel. The surge in SAF investments is largely attributed to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and various state programs that encourage the use of this cleaner fuel.
In a bold climate initiative, the White House has set an ambitious target of fulfilling 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. In 2023, the United States consumed approximately 1.6 million b/d of petroleum jet fuel, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting that demand will exceed 2.0 million b/d by 2050.
The EIA tracks SAF production within the Other Biofuels category of the Petroleum Supply Monthly, which also includes renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels at various development stages.
Historically, the production of Other Biofuels in the U.S. has been minimal. However, the expansion of the renewable diesel sector has led to increased output of by-products like renewable naphtha and renewable propane, resulting in a rise in Other Biofuels production from 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d in 2023.
Despite its growth, SAF production has remained a small fraction of total Other Biofuels output due to limited production capacity. At the beginning of 2024, U.S. SAF production capacity stood at only about 2,000 b/d, with two operational plants: World Energy in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables in Great Falls, Montana.
According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. production of Other Biofuels is projected to increase by roughly 50% in 2024 and nearly double from 2024 to 2025. The primary driver of this growth—from 19,000 b/d in 2023 to 51,000 b/d by 2025—is the rising production capacity for SAF across the nation.
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