The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, announcing a reduction in its monthly report issued yesterday. The new estimate for 2024 reflects a decrease of 106,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing the expected demand growth down to 1.9 million barrels per day (mbpd).
OPEC attributed this adjustment to “actual data received, combined with slightly lower expectations for some regions.” The forecast for 2025 has also been lowered by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 mbpd. Consequently, OPEC now estimates total oil demand for 2024 at 104.14 mbpd, down from the previous figure of 104.24 mbpd reported in September. For 2025, the demand is now projected to be 105.78 mbpd, a reduction from the earlier estimate of 105.99 mbpd.
In addition to these demand adjustments, OPEC reported a significant decline in crude oil production, which fell by 604,000 bpd in September compared to August. This decrease was largely influenced by a halt in production in Libya due to a political standoff, alongside Iraq’s efforts to enhance compliance with OPEC+ production cuts.
According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), all 12 OPEC members collectively produced an average of 26.04 million bpd in September, marking a substantial drop of 604,000 bpd from August levels. Libya, exempt from the OPEC+ agreement, saw its output fall to an average of 540,000 bpd in September, down from 1.2 million bpd before a month-long crisis began at the end of August. However, production in Libya has resumed as of early October, rebounding to approximately 1.3 million bpd.
Iraq, the second-largest producer in OPEC, experienced a decline in output by 155,000 bpd, bringing its total production to 4.112 million bpd, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. This figure still exceeds Iraq’s commitment to cap output at around 4 million bpd. In contrast, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, maintained its production levels, averaging 8.971 million bpd in September, down by 23,000 bpd from the previous month.
Additionally, Iran’s production rose by 21,000 bpd to an average of 3.316 million bpd, as the country remains exempt from OPEC+ cuts due to U.S. sanctions affecting its oil industry. Among non-OPEC producers participating in the OPEC+ agreement, total crude oil production reached 14.06 million bpd in September, a rise of 47,000 bpd from August. This increase was primarily driven by production gains in Kazakhstan, where output climbed by 75,000 bpd to 1.545 million bpd, even as Russian production saw a decline.
Iraq and non-OPEC producers, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have committed to adhering to production quotas and compensating for previous overproduction by September 2025. As these developments unfolded, oil futures showed a decline ahead of the report, with analysts noting disappointment over the absence of detailed stimulus measures from China over the weekend.
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