The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its 2024 fuel ethanol production forecast, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on June 11. The forecast for ethanol consumption remains unchanged.
The EIA now projects fuel ethanol production to average 1.04 million barrels per day in 2024, a slight uptick from the previous month’s forecast of 1.03 million barrels per day. The forecast for 2025 ethanol production remains steady at 1.03 million barrels per day. In comparison, ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023.
Breaking it down quarterly, ethanol production in 2024 is expected to maintain an average of 1.04 million barrels per day in the second, third, and fourth quarters. For 2025, the production is forecasted to average 1.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter, drop slightly to 1.02 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters, and rise again to 1.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Regarding ethanol consumption, the EIA has kept its prediction for fuel ethanol blending unchanged at 930,000 barrels per day for this year. However, the agency has revised its 2025 forecast for fuel ethanol blending to 930,000 barrels per day, down from last month’s projection of 940,000 barrels per day. This aligns with the average blending rate of 930,000 barrels per day recorded in 2023.
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