As the summer navigation season in the Russian Arctic officially begins on Monday, July 1, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is poised for a substantial increase in traffic. This season marks a significant milestone, with the first eastbound delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Yamal LNG nearing completion of its inaugural summer voyage to Asia. The LNG carrier Eduard Toll is traveling in a convoy with the nuclear icebreaker Sibir and the crude oil shuttle tanker Shturman Skuratov.
Boost in LNG and Crude Oil Shipments
LNG shipments, crude oil transits, and expanding container shipping are set to dominate the NSR this summer. Novatek, Russia’s largest LNG producer, is gearing up to send record volumes of LNG to markets in Asia and Europe. With 28 LNG carriers already permitted for NSR navigation, surpassing the total for 2023, activity is expected to ramp up rapidly.
In addition to ongoing exports from Yamal LNG, Novatek aims to commence production at its new Arctic LNG 2 facility, which has been idle since December 2023. Despite a host of Western sanctions posing challenges, Novatek is poised to initiate at least sporadic shipments in the coming weeks and months.
A National Event in Russia
Later this summer, Novatek plans to tow the second production line of Arctic LNG 2 from the construction yard near Murmansk to the Gydan Peninsula. This massive 400-meter-long platform will be transported by a dozen tugs and offshore vessels over approximately two weeks, mirroring last year’s tow of the first production line, which was attended by President Putin and celebrated as a national event.
Challenges with Conventional LNG Carriers
Due to a shortage of ice-capable LNG carriers resulting from Western sanctions, Novatek will rely on conventional and low ice-class tankers. About a dozen such vessels, many of which have never navigated Arctic waters, have received permission to enter the NSR after July 1.
Further east along the route, Rosneft continues its extensive Vostok Oil project. Originally slated to commence in 2024, the project’s timeline remains uncertain. Nevertheless, significant volumes of construction materials are being transported along the route as the company progresses with port facilities and land-side infrastructure development.
Potential to Double Crude Oil Shipments
Even without exports from Vostok Oil this summer, the NSR is set to see significant volumes of crude oil shipped from Europe to Asia. Last year, vessels transported approximately 1.5 million tons of crude oil, a figure Russian officials aim to double in 2024. The introduction of Suezmax oil tankers, some without ice protection, has raised environmental concerns, but these tankers can carry up to one million barrels of oil.
Growing Container Shipping Activity
Global shipping disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea due to Houthi activity, have prompted many operators to reroute vessels around Africa’s southern tip, extending voyages between Europe and Asia. As a result, the Arctic route is emerging as an attractive alternative for niche operators.
Chinese shipping company NewNew Shipping plans to complete at least a dozen container ship voyages this summer, building on last year’s seven trips, including the notable voyage of the NewNew Polar Bear. Hong Kong-based Safetrans Shipping is also joining the fray, having acquired low ice-class Panamax container vessels capable of carrying up to 5,000 standard containers. These vessels received NSR permits last month, poised to surpass previous container shipping activities in the Arctic.
The summer navigation season in the Russian Arctic promises increased activity and strategic significance, highlighting the NSR’s growing role in global maritime trade.
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