North Dakota’s crude oil production experienced a significant decline in May, falling by approximately 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to April, according to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources. This drop brings May’s output to 1.195 million bpd, a 3.9% decrease from April’s 1.24 million bpd.
The decline in production, which marks the lowest monthly output since the January freeze that severely impacted production levels, was somewhat unexpected. Mark Bohrer, Assistant Director at the department, attributed the decrease to ongoing road restrictions and fewer-than-anticipated completion numbers.
Conversely, natural gas production in the state, which is home to the Bakken shale, saw an increase in May, Bohrer noted.
The drop in oil production in May mirrors the situation in January when extreme cold nearly halved the state’s output due to operational challenges caused by freezing temperatures. In May, the Bakken and Three Forks formations were responsible for 97% of North Dakota’s oil output, with the remaining 3% coming from conventional pools.
The drilling rig count saw a slight rise, reaching 39 as of mid-July, up from 37 in May and June. Despite this increase, the number remains relatively low, largely due to recent mergers and acquisitions. Bohrer projects that the rig count will gradually rise to the mid-forties over the next two years.
Currently, there are 14 active frac crews in North Dakota. Although drilling activity is anticipated to see a slight uptick, operators are maintaining a permit inventory of approximately 12 months. Preliminary data indicates that 55 wells were completed in June, a decrease from 67 in May. Bohrer emphasized that a completion rate in the 90-100 range is necessary to achieve significant production growth.
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