In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its global liquid fuels consumption forecast. The EIA now anticipates an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025. The revised projections estimate global consumption at 102.94 million barrels per day for 2023, rising to 104.55 million barrels per day in 2024.
The U.S. is projected to consume 20.45 million barrels per day in 2024 and 20.63 million barrels per day in 2025, while China’s consumption is expected to reach 16.34 million barrels per day this year and 16.66 million barrels per day in 2025. These figures mark a slight decrease from previous projections in July, where the EIA had forecasted 102.91 million barrels per day for 2024 and 104.68 million barrels per day for 2025.
The EIA attributes the downward adjustment primarily to slower economic activity in China, coupled with reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and refinery runs. China’s GDP growth for Q2 2024 was recorded at 4.7%, falling short of the government’s 5% target due to diminished investment in real estate and construction. Consequently, the EIA now predicts a growth of 0.3 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025 for China, down from the 0.5 million barrels per day average growth rate observed from 2015 to 2019.
The Energy Institute’s 2024 statistical review highlights that total global oil liquids consumption reached 103.414 million barrels per day in 2023, a 2.8% increase from the previous year. The U.S. led with 20.246 million barrels per day, while China followed with 16.658 million barrels per day. The review noted a 1.2% annual increase in U.S. consumption and a 10.7% rise in China’s consumption.
The EIA continues to provide independent and impartial energy data to support informed policymaking and enhance public understanding of energy’s economic and environmental impacts.
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