North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is projected to double within the next three years, reaching 24.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2027, according to a report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday.
This expansion forecast is contingent on the successful commissioning of all LNG projects currently under construction across Mexico, the United States, and Canada. The EIA anticipates that the majority of this increased capacity will come from the United States, which is expected to contribute 9.7 Bcf/d. Mexico and Canada are projected to add a combined total of 3.3 Bcf/d. This growth is attributed to ten new projects underway in North America, including five significant ventures in the United States: Plaquemines Phases I and II, Corpus Christi Stage III, Golden Pass, Rio Grande Phase I, and Port Arthur Phase I.
As North America scales up its LNG export capabilities, global demand for LNG is anticipated to surge by more than 50% by 2024.
Currently, Qatar, Australia, and the United States dominate the global LNG market. Qatar is poised to lead the industry, with its government forecasting that the country will supply 40% of the world’s new LNG by 2029, driven by major projects such as the North Field expansion, which is set to increase Qatar’s export capacity by 85%. QatarEnergy has already secured numerous long-term LNG contracts, including a recent 15-year agreement with Kuwait. To support its growing export volumes, Qatar has also commissioned a fleet of new LNG carriers.
In a recent legal development, a federal judge overturned President Biden’s January decision to pause the review and approval of LNG export applications, deeming the pause “completely without reason or logic.”
Research highlighted in a 2024 paper titled “The Market and Climate Implications of US LNG Exports” suggests that U.S. LNG exports could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from the U.S. power sector, with a projected decrease of 145 million metric tons by 2030.
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