South America is increasingly pivotal to global crude oil supply growth as production in other regions remains stagnant. Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are leading the charge, with Venezuela also experiencing notable recovery. Data reveals Brazil’s crude and condensate output surged 7% from April to June, reversing a five-month decline. Guyana’s production growth slowed in the third quarter due to maintenance on key assets, while Argentina’s shale oil production is set to rise significantly through 2025.
In Colombia, production is expected to reach 797,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter, up by 12,000 bpd from the previous quarter. However, output is projected to decline from the fourth quarter of 2024 through 2025 due to the depletion of mature fields.
Brazil: Brazil’s crude output, following a decline due to maintenance issues, has been rebounding since April. Production reached 3.41 million bpd in June and is anticipated to increase further to 3.76 million bpd by the end of 2024. Growth is driven by the Tupi, Buzios, and Mero fields, with major assets like Mero 3 and Bacalhau expected to add up to 460,000 bpd by late 2025. Despite steady exports of around 1.5 million bpd, Brazilian production levels are set to rise, potentially boosting export volumes.
Venezuela: Venezuela’s crude production is forecasted at 932,000 bpd for August, marking a slight increase from July. Output has been steadily rising since late 2023, despite recent sanctions. However, production forecasts have been slightly reduced due to lower-than-expected output from the Urdaneta Oeste field. Exports dropped to 340,000 bpd in July, impacted by processing outages and political events.
Guyana: Guyana’s production is projected to average 520,000 bpd in August, a significant rise from July but below the first half of the year. Production was affected by maintenance work on the Liza Unity and Destiny FPSOs. Output is expected to rebound, reaching over 610,000 bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024, with further increases anticipated as the FPSO One Guyana comes online in late 2025.
Argentina: Argentina’s crude output grew by over 7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, averaging 691,000 bpd. The country is poised for robust growth, driven by shale production in the Vaca Muerta play, with projections indicating production could surpass 800,000 bpd by late 2025. The Vaca Muerta shale is central to this growth, contributing over half of Argentina’s total crude output.
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