The United Steelworkers (USW) union is looking to renewable energy projects to mitigate job losses in the oil refining and petrochemical sectors. According to a union official, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could lead to the creation of approximately 17,000 new union jobs.
Representing around 30,000 workers in North America’s crude oil refineries and petrochemical plants, the USW remains hopeful, even as Donald Trump prepares for a potential election victory next week. Trump has vowed to reverse the IRA if elected.
“The Inflation Reduction Act was a bipartisan bill,” said Larry Burchfield, USW District 13 director. “There’s a lot all sewn up in the IRA. It would take a lot to undo it.”
However, analysts caution that a second Trump presidency could significantly alter the country’s energy landscape. Energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie warns that such a scenario could jeopardize a substantial portion of renewable energy investments, potentially increasing carbon emissions by an additional 1 billion tonnes by 2050 and delaying peak fossil fuel demand by a decade beyond current predictions. Under existing policies, Wood Mackenzie estimates that the U.S. energy sector will see approximately $7.7 trillion in overall spending by 2050, a figure that could drop by $1 trillion under Trump due to reduced support for low-carbon energy initiatives and infrastructure improvements.
The firm also forecasts that diminished investment in low-carbon energy sources could lead to a 6% rise in natural gas demand, equating to an increase of 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2030.
While Trump would not have the authority to unilaterally repeal the IRA enacted during Biden’s presidency, he could implement changes to environmental regulations and executive orders, potentially reversing many of Biden’s environmental policies. Wood Mackenzie further predicts that the total number of electric vehicles (EVs) on U.S. roads by 2050 could be 50% lower than under current policies, as automakers might lean toward hybrid vehicle production over fully electric models.
The stakes are high, as the auto industry has committed over $100 billion to EV investments, which could generate 100,000 jobs in the United States.
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