China’s crude oil imports continue to show weakness, underscoring a significant challenge for OPEC+ nations as they navigate the global energy market. October marked the sixth consecutive month of decline in imports, with the world’s largest importer bringing in 44.7 million metric tons of crude, equivalent to 10.53 million barrels per day (bpd). This represents a drop from September’s 11.07 million bpd and a year-on-year decline from October 2023’s 11.53 million bpd.
For the first 10 months of 2024, China’s crude oil imports averaged 10.94 million bpd, reflecting a 3.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, which saw an average of 11.36 million bpd. This 420,000 bpd drop poses a significant concern for OPEC and its allies, including Russia, within the broader OPEC+ group.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revised its forecast for China’s oil demand growth down to 580,000 bpd, a substantial reduction from the 760,000 bpd forecast made in July. However, this revised projection appears to remain optimistic when compared to the ongoing trend of weak imports. It is important to note that while imports have dropped, total demand in China also includes domestic production and inventory changes. Domestic output has seen slight growth in 2024, and while China does not disclose inventory levels, there is speculation that stockpiles have been increasing, as refining activity has not kept pace with the total available crude.
The shift in import volumes has significant implications for global crude prices, as imports from the seaborne market heavily influence market dynamics. This challenge comes at a time when OPEC+ is grappling with how to manage its production policies. On November 3, the group announced a delay in its planned production increase, initially set for December, pushing back the anticipated rise of 180,000 bpd by another month. This adjustment is part of OPEC+’s gradual plan to unwind a total of 2.2 million bpd in production cuts over the course of 2025.
As OPEC+ continues to adjust its strategy in response to global demand shifts, the sustained decline in China’s crude oil imports presents a significant challenge for the group’s long-term market stability.
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