OPEC+ has limited flexibility to reverse its ongoing oil production cuts, which have inadvertently spurred increased supply from the U.S. shale industry, according to Afshin Javan, Iran’s representative to the group. In a critical assessment of OPEC+ strategy, Javan argued that the alliance’s efforts to support oil prices have unintentionally encouraged greater production outside the group, particularly in the United States.
“This strategy has effectively promoted higher supply from countries outside OPEC+, especially the U.S.,” Javan stated in an article published by Iran’s state-run news agency Shana. “As a result, OPEC+ now has limited room to adjust its production restrictions.”
Javan’s comments, unusually critical for an OPEC founding member, come just days before the group is set to meet and discuss plans to revive production that has been halted since 2022. In his analysis, Javan also suggested that some smaller African members, including Gabon and Congo, may be forced to leave the organization due to an inability to meet membership fees.
OPEC+, a coalition of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-member nations led by Russia, has faced growing pressure over its decision to delay the restart of production amid declining crude prices. The group has struggled to balance the need for price stability with maintaining adequate supply levels.
Javan cautioned that OPEC+’s planned production increases in the coming years could lead to an oversupply of crude oil by 2025. He noted that the production cuts implemented over the past four years have largely benefited U.S. shale producers, whose output has surged by 2 million barrels per day since 2020.
“Bleak economic prospects in major consumer China are further complicating the situation for OPEC and its partners,” Javan added. His remarks contrast sharply with projections from OPEC’s Vienna-based research department, which forecasts a growing demand for the group’s oil in the coming years.
As OPEC+ grapples with internal divisions and external market pressures, the future direction of the alliance remains uncertain.
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