China’s gasoline and gasoil exports saw a significant decline in the first two months of 2025, with both categories dropping by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year. This decrease is attributed to a reduction in the export tax rebate that took effect in December 2024.
According to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), gasoil exports reached about 0.44 million tons in February, a 64.33% increase from January. This rise was mainly due to an oversupply in the domestic market during February, which is typically a slow season. Additionally, export quotas were plentiful. However, gasoil exports for January and February combined totaled 0.71 million tons, marking a 41.12% drop year-on-year.
In February, the main destinations for China’s gasoil exports included the Philippines, Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore, and Bangladesh, which together accounted for 93% of the total.
Meanwhile, gasoline exports stood at around 0.20 million tons in February, down 60.12% from January. The decline was driven by strong domestic demand during the Chinese New Year holiday and poor export margins, according to GACC data. Gasoline exports for January and February amounted to 0.70 million tons, a 52.12% decrease from the same period last year. Key export markets included Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, and Myanmar, making up 97.91% of total gasoline exports in February.
The sharp decline in both gasoline and gasoil exports for January and February was partly due to the reduced export tax rebate, which dropped from 13% to 9% as of December 1, 2024. This change raised the export cost for domestic refineries, making exports less attractive.
China’s kerosene exports totaled 1.36 million tons in February, a slight increase of 3.89% from January. This growth was driven by regional supply tightness in Asia, which kept exports at a moderate level. The main destinations for kerosene were Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, and Ethiopia, which together accounted for 74% of total kerosene exports.
Looking ahead, China’s refined oil exports are expected to reach 3.54 million tons in March, based on refinery export plans. Gasoline exports are projected to increase by nearly 20% to 0.70 million tons, due to weaker domestic demand. Gasoil exports are set at 0.50 million tons, a slight decrease from February, amid rising domestic consumption and narrowing export margins. Kerosene exports are expected to rise by 14.71% to 2.34 million tons, driven by recovering overseas aviation demand.
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